Alexander Zverev had an impressive tournament and will take the title deservedly. Preview of the men’s final of the tournament in Madrid

Tennis

German tennis player will meet in the final of the tournament in Madrid Alexander Zverev and italian Matteo Berretini… We make predictions for the decisive match of the Mutua Madrid Open, we offer an analysis of the final match of the tournament in Madrid and help to place a bet on tennis.

What time is the final match between Zverev and Berrettini? Finals start time: 19:30 Moscow time.

For Zverev, this is the eighth final of Masters in his career (three titles, two on clay), for Berrettini – the first. In total, Alexander has seven clay finals (five titles: two Masters, three ATP 250), Matteo has four clay finals (three titles: all ATP 250).

Berrettini has been in the Top 10 since October 2019. The highest position is eighth. Zverev has not left the Top 10 since July 2017. The highest position is the third.

According to the results of the tournament, Matteo will become the ninth racket in the world, Zverev – the sixth.

Performance at the 2021 Mutua Madrid Open:

Zverev’s path to the final:

· Kei Nishikori – 6/3, 6/2
· Daniel Evans – 6/3, 7/6 (3)
· Rafael Nadal – 6/4, 6/4
· Dominic Tim – 6/3, 6/4

Total: 8 sets, 78 games, 6 hours and 12 minutes on the court. Average Opponent Rating: 18.75 Highest Opponent Rating: 2.
Average match statistics: 5.5 aces; 3.25 double faults; first serve percentage – 63.25; points on the first serve – 78.75%; points on the second serve – 54.25%; glasses at the reception – 42%.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCrSIpN1P5Q

Berrettini’s path to the finale:

Fabio Fognini – 6/3, 6/4
Federico Delbonis – 7/6 (4), 6/4
Christian Garin – 5/7, 6/3, 6/0
Casper Ruud – 6/4, 6/4

Total: 10 sets, 89 games, 6 hours and 24 minutes on the court. Average Opponent Rating: 38. Highest Opponent Rating: 22.
Average match statistics: 7.75 aces; 1 double fault; first serve percentage – 69; points on the first serve – 84.75%; points on the second serve – 58.5%; glasses at the reception – 39.5%.

Head-to-head statistics for Zverev and Berrettini

Total score: 2: 1 in favor of Zverev.
Counting on the ground: 1: 1.
Score at big tournaments (“Masters”, “Helmets”, Final): 2: 1 in favor of Zverev.
Account for the last two years: 1: 1.
Last match won by: Zverev (Semi-finals of Shanghai-2019, 6/3, 6/4).

What awaits us in the final?

First of all, it is worth noting what a powerful tournament Zverev had. And from the point of view of labels: defeated Nadal himself, defeated powerful dirt coat Tim (the Austrian is returning after a recession, but playing powerfully). And in terms of numbers: not a single set played, two opponents from the Top 5, three from the Top 30, all from the Top 50. Sasha did not have recessions and matches in which there would be strange statistical outliers of interest on the reception or serve. The German consistently took two-thirds of the points on his serve and something between the third and half of the points on the opponent’s serve. Zverev did not have to greatly adjust his style to his opponents, and this is a sign of high class and good form. A positive call before the final.

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Against this background, Berrettini’s performance looks more faded. Not a single rival from the Top 20, one from the Top 25 (young and not the most experienced Kasper Ruud). Matteo also played consistently, not sagging in terms of serving and receiving, but in his case, the opposite would be surprising. The Italian is a good dirt road, he is more successful, more experienced and generally stronger than his rivals. Berrettini had to impose his style, not adjust, and he did.

Zverev looks like a favorite: the German is physically more powerful, more status-conscious and more experienced than his opponent in the big finals. It is also clear that Sasha has gained excellent shape and at this tournament he will definitely not be surprised at the opponent’s pressure and attacking skills. When you calmly crush Nadal and Tim in a row on the ground, you do not need to be afraid that the next opponent will give out something unimaginable. However, the finale will not be an easy walk for Zverev. In Belgrade, Berrettini showed that he is able to squeeze the maximum out of a not very difficult grid and fight to the end in the finals (in the decisive match he lost the first set to Karasev 1/6, but then found the key to Karacev’s extremely aggressive play, endured it and took the title).

It will be important for Alexander to act well on reception (to keep the ball in the court and make the opponent move), because in the past four games Matteo showed excellent numbers on his serve. Zverev should take Berrettini out of his comfort zone and make him nervous: when you dictate the conditions for four matches in a row, it is difficult to rebuild and play number two.

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We would estimate Zverev’s chances of winning at 70%. Such worthy races should be rewarded with titles.

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